: Historical and Political Risk

Historical and Political Risk

 

History Repeating Itself

For thousands of years, from 3rd Century Rome to 18th Century France, 1930s Europe or current western inflationary woes, history offers clear lessons. Specifically, and without exception, all empires, nations or regimes which find themselves at fatal debt levels eventually resort to the seductive (as well as desperate) call to devalue their currency and increase their economic and political controls.

We’ve seen current examples, from lockdowns, media censorship, misreported inflation data, and the curtailment of civil liberties to the slow rise of CBDC as a surveillance/control instrument, masquerading as an efficient “payment system.” Of course, CBDC is just nothing more than fiat money in a digital form; it will do nothing to protect currencies from further creation, and hence further debasement.

Devaluing Currencies to Pay Debts Ends Badly

Such measures, which begin slowly at first, eventually become addictions, as weaker and weaker currencies are rolled out with increasing speed to mask otherwise unsustainable overspending policies and unpayable debt burdens.

Initially, currency expansion feels almost miraculous, but the end result is always the same: A tragic transition from economic boom to bust follows. What equally follows is the destruction of the underlying currency and greater social unrest contained by increased political centralization and controls from the extreme political left or right.

Higher Risks Today

Central banks have promulgated a fantasy that such artificial measures are sustainable. This included the growing popularity of “unlimited QE” under economic theories like Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), which have been wrongly presented as a viable and sustainable policy solution.

Understanding Yesterday, Preparing for Tomorrow

Debt cannot be solved with more debt paid for by currencies created out of thin air. The inevitable end-game is always the same: Currencies collapse in value and purchasing power, a fact playing out in real-time today. As the following report makes clear, currencies are always the last bubble to “pop.”